🔗 Share this article

Just 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus United.

His opener came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.

• The main striker might resume scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.