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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd